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ITCZ / MONSOON TROUGH: The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 1008 mb low pressure at 06N34W to 03N38W. The ITCZ extends from 03N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W.

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N96W, then resumes from near 10N103W to 03N118W. The ITCZ extends from 03N118W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 87W and 92W and from 01N to 07N between 106W and 118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR: Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail over the waters N of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in SW swell across much of the forecast waters into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity.

Fuente: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlántico) · (Pacífico)