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ITCZ / MONSOON TROUGH: The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 1008 mb low pressure at 06N34W to 03N38W. The ITCZ extends from 03N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W.

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N96W, then resumes from near 10N103W to 03N118W. The ITCZ extends from 03N118W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 87W and 92W and from 01N to 07N between 106W and 118W.

GALE WARNING: Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

GULF OF AMERICA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through the Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection over much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are concentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface trough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO: Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon and Hurricane Trudy.

Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, strong N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are ongoing in the northern and central Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present offshore Baja California. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon is near 19.3N 108.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 1 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Simon will move to 19.8N 108.7W Fri morning, 20.8N 110.0W Fri afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression near 22.0N 111.9W Sat morning. Simon will become a remnant low near 23.1N 113.6W Sat afternoon, move west of Baja California Sur Sun morning, then dissipate Sun afternoon. Hurricane Trudy is near 13.7N 101.7W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Trudy will move to 14.3N 101.9W Fri morning, and 15.2N 102.2W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Trudy will reach 16.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 17.5N 103.9W Sat afternoon, 18.8N 104.9W Sun morning, and 19.8N 105.8W Sun afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm over west of Cabo Corrientes Mon afternoon. Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may reach gale force this weekend has high pressure builds southward through Mexico in the wake of a cold front.

Fuente: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlántico) · (Pacífico)