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GALE WARNING: Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

GULF OF AMERICA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through the Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection over much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are concentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface trough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity.

Fuente: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlántico) · (Pacífico)